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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."